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Investment Research—Technology, Media, and Telecoms
In the 1980s and 1990s I was employed by investment banks with progressively larger sales platforms as an analyst responsible for the research of the European Technology, Media, and Telecoms industries. In this position I, along with the teams for which I was then responsible, published a very substantial number of reports and advised many European & American telecommunication companies. I also was a guest lecturer at Insead Business School in Lausanne, gave talks in virtually every major city in North America and Western Europe, and frequently appeared on radio and television news broadcasts. I particularly specialised in mobile communications writing the first article on cellular phones to be published in the UK (July 1982), and first published on the subject of on-line publishing in 1983. Excluding banking business, sector revenues grew by 60% compound from 1981 and by 1999 reached almost $150 million. In the early 1980s I was also at one time a non-executive director of Future Computers Ltd- a manufacturer of personal computers, and Independent Computer Engineering Ltd- a manufacturer of back-up media.
During the second half of the 1990s the web browser was introduced accompanied by a large body of utopian literature, such as Bill Mitchell's 1996 City and Bits, stating clearly what 'effect' this would have on cities and society. There was increasingly frenetic activity in the stock market where the number of inexperienced participants in technology and telecoms grew rapidly and immature telecom venture companies were financed. The whole investment process became corrroded which further undermined my confidence in the situation. In Manias, Panics, and Crashes (3rd ed 1996) Charles Kindleberger provided a scholarly historical context of this phenomenon.
New telecom capacity was installed that was greatly in excess of likely near-term demand amid unrealistic expectations, in a dynamic cycle of positive feedback described by Jay Forrester in Industrial Dynamics (1961). At the same time our own team research papers in 1998 suggested that the telecom architecture of the last one hundred years was, within a very short period, unlikely to meet operators needs. I decided to take career retirement in late 1999 to undertake research into the relationships that surrounded the introduction of the telegraph during the 1845 stock market 'railway mania' bubble.
First Vice President (MD), Merrill Lynch Europe, 1987-1999
Manager, Robert Fleming Securities, 1985-1987
Associate Member, Henry Cooke Lumsden, 1981-1985
Member CFA Institute
Fellow Securities Institute (formerly Member of the London Stock Exchange)
Member UK Society of Investment Professionals
Technology Manufacturing—Profit Analysis
After taking 'A' levels in Maths, Economics, and British Constitution I trained as a management accountant at what is now the Caledonian Business School in Glasgow. In the late 1960s and all the 1970s I worked in a variety of capital goods companies where I was responsible for the design and installation of material resource planning (MRP) and management information systems, together with understanding and interpreting the present and future financial situation. Systems were based on IBM 360, Univac 1108, Leo III, and ICL 1900 and 2600 platforms. To accomplish this task I was responsible for multi-disciplinary departments staffed by very talented graduates that developed sophisticated analysis using operational research techniques utilising the systems dynamics theories of Jay Forrester.
Between 1979 and 1981 the British technology industry contracted by over 33% as government policy de-emphasised manufacturing in favour of service industry so today none of my places of employment survive. Daniel Bell's 1976 seminal book, The Coming of Post-Industrial Society, contextualised my own career which at the time was in crisis due to the rapid collapse of the technology industry, and helped me begin to understand the world around me.
Financial Director, Sulzer Brothers (UK)—Packaging Equipment Div, 1979-1981
Financial Controller, International Computers Ltd (ICL) —Large Systems Div, 1977-1979
Chief Accountant, Renold—Crofts Gear Works, 1973-1977
Project Accountant, Motherwell
Bridge Engineering—Process Plant Div, 1969-1972
Member Chartered Management Institute
Fellow Association of Chartered Certified Accountants
Fellow Institute of Chartered Secretaries and Administrators
Fellow Chartered Institute of Management Accountants
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